Clermont vs Guingamp 23.10.2026: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Clermont-Ferrand’s Stade Gabriel-Montpied is set to host a clash between two sides that have spent the autumn months searching for their identity. The home team has forgotten how to win, yet they have also almost forgotten how to lose. Their opponents, once dreaming of Ligue 1 promotion, are now stumbling through one away defeat after another. Friday evening promises a tense, cautious affair where the margin for error is razor-thin, and no one will dare to play expansively.

Tactical Analysis: Clermont – The Draw Specialists

Clermont’s season can be summed up in a single word: draws. Under manager David Guion, the team has failed to secure a single victory in nine league rounds, but they have shared the spoils on seven occasions. At home, this pattern becomes even more pronounced: on their own turf, Clermont have lost only once in five matches, and four of those five ended all square. The glaring weakness is the attack. At Gabriel-Montpied, they average a meagre 0.6 goals per game, and their matches rarely produce fireworks – only three of nine league fixtures this season have seen more than two goals. Guion has now overseen seven official matches without a win, and the creative burden falls largely on Kyei, while the midfield engine is built around Enzo Cantero and Romain Kouamé.

Tactical Analysis: Guingamp – Lost on the Road

Sylvain Ripoll’s Guingamp are enduring a rough patch, having lost three consecutive league matches. The away form is particularly alarming: in four road trips, they have collected just one point. A club that was recently pushing for a return to Ligue 1 now looks shaky and concedes far too much when leaving Brittany. There is a ray of hope: defender Donald Gomis has served his suspension following a straight red card and is back in the squad. In attack, Guingamp rely on Amin Emia and Stanislas Kielt to provide the cutting edge.

Head-to-Head History and Current Form

The historical record leans heavily in Clermont’s favour. Of the last six league meetings, Clermont have won four, and they have avoided defeat in seven of the past eight encounters. The most recent clash, back in May 2026, ended in a 1-0 home win for Clermont. These fixtures are traditionally low-scoring affairs: in none of the last eight meetings did both teams find the net in both halves. The expected goals figures – 0.95 for the hosts and 1.00 for the visitors – point to a tight, defensive contest where the most probable scorelines are 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, and 0-1.

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: Draw at odds 3.30

Clermont simply cannot win, but they also lose at home only extremely rarely: seven draws in nine rounds and four stalemates in their last five home matches. Guingamp arrive in crisis, yet they are not playing significantly worse than their opponents, and the bookmakers even consider them slight favourites. The weak attacks of both sides, combined with the caution typical of the lower half of the table, make a draw the most natural outcome. We assess the probability of this result at 35% – anything above 2.86 is playable.

Second prediction: Total under 2.5 goals at odds 1.91

This bet aligns perfectly with the main pick: scorelines of 0-0 and 1-1 would satisfy both markets. Clermont score only 0.6 goals per game at home, their matches this season have predominantly been low-scoring, and Guingamp are in a rut, picking up almost no points on the road. Head-to-head encounters between these teams are traditionally stingy, and the last one ended 1-0. We estimate the probability of under 2.5 goals at 60% – anything above 1.67 is playable.