Eibar vs Mallorca 17.10.2026: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

The defeat in the previous round brought an end to Eibar’s seven-match winning streak, allowing Almería to draw level with the Basque side on points. Getting back to winning ways at Ipurua will be no easy task: Segunda’s most prolific attack is set to face Mallorca, the championship’s meanest defense.

Eibar: Seven Wins and the League’s Most Potent Attack

Jokin Aranbarri’s side has taken seven victories from nine matches and leads the division in goals scored with 19. However, the impressive run of seven consecutive wins came to a halt last time out against Real Oviedo, losing 1:3. The Basques were far from toothless in that defeat—they fired off 18 shots, carved out four big chances, and generated roughly 2 xG. What makes Eibar particularly dangerous is the lack of dependence on a single striker: chances tend to come from both flanks, late runs from midfield, and Bautista’s constant movement inside the opponent’s box.

At Ipurua, the hosts have won three of their four home matches, scoring eight times in the process. Yet the current scoring rate is running significantly ahead of the underlying numbers: 19 goals have been produced from just about 12.7 xG. As a result, another goal explosion should not be taken for granted. No major changes are expected in the starting XI. Sergio Álvarez remains in recovery, while Gift has already returned to full training with the group.

Mallorca: A Solid Defense and a Single Away Goal in Four Matches

Mallorca sit fourth and have conceded only four goals across nine rounds. Luis García Fernández’s team has been far more cautious on the road, though: one win, two draws, and one defeat, with a goal difference of just 1:2. In three of their four away fixtures, the islanders have kept a clean sheet—but a shortage of goals has prevented them from turning those defensive solid displays into more victories.

In the last round, Mallorca defeated Las Palmas 3:1, returning to a more aggressive approach through wide areas. Against one of the leading sides away from home, however, defensive discipline is likely to remain the priority. To make matters worse, Morlanes—important for playing out from the back under pressure—is injured, while Pablo Torre, who acts as the link between midfield and attack, is doubtful after sitting out training due to illness.

Predicted Lineups: Eibar vs Mallorca

Eibar (4-2-3-1)

• Magunagoitia
• Rodríguez, Elgezabal, Arbilla, Bernat
• Madariaga, Garrido
• Ares, Magunselaya, Guruzeta
• Bautista

Unavailable: Álvarez, Gift (both doubtful) Head coach: Jokin Aranbarri

Mallorca (4-2-3-1)

• Tenas
• Donald, Valjent, Raíllo, Moreno
• Sánchez, Sala
• Serda, Darder, Liso
• Fuentes

Unavailable: Morlanes, Roca, Luna (all injured); Torre, Sumaoro (both doubtful) Head coach: Luis García Fernández

Prediction and Bet

Main pick: Eibar to win at 2.56 Eibar have won seven of nine matches and regularly threaten goal on home soil. Mallorca, in contrast, have collected most of their points at home, and across four away trips have found the net only once. Additionally, the visitors’ midfield absences make it harder to play out under intense pressing and move the ball forward. That gives the hosts a clear edge in dictating the tempo and creating the decisive chance. The pick is a home victory, priced at 2.56, with an estimated 45% probability of landing—anything above 2.22 represents value.

Total goals pick: Under 2.5 at 1.80 Eibar’s 19 goals come from only 12.7 xG, so maintaining the current conversion rate against Segunda’s best defense looks unlikely. Mallorca have conceded just twice across four away games, with each of those matches producing at most two goals. Despite the more adventurous display against Las Palmas, the islanders will probably revert to a compact defensive shape rather than getting involved in an open exchange. The pick is under 2.5 goals, priced at 1.80, with an estimated 60% probability of success—anything above 1.67 is worth considering.