Everton vs Newcastle 29.10.2026: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

The cup meeting between Everton and Newcastle is effectively a dress rehearsal for their upcoming Premier League battle. The Toffees are still trying to find themselves after two consecutive defeats without scoring, while the Magpies have just snapped their own losing streak by dispatching Crystal Palace. On Merseyside, there is no appetite to treat this competition as an afterthought – the club has long made a serious push for silverware a central goal of the season.

Everton: A Cold Shower from the Big Boys

David Moyes's squad burst out of the blocks this season, going seven official matches unbeaten, with cup wins over Preston (4:0) and Wolverhampton (1:0) tucked into that run. But meetings with the top sides quickly cooled their momentum: two identical 0:2 defeats – Chelsea at home and Arsenal away – exposed their scoring problems. So far, the Toffees have managed only eight goals in eight Premier League rounds.

At Goodison Park, though, they remain stubbornly difficult to beat, having taken seven points from four league games on home soil. Moyes is unlikely to tear up his approach for Thursday's fixture, but some tweaks are almost certain. Three players are under question marks: Grealish stayed away from the Arsenal match because of illness, Branthwaite has been going through concussion protocol, and Mykolenko picked up a knock during that London trip. Nørgaard has rejoined the squad after appearing as a substitute against Chelsea and traveling to Arsenal, although Moyes has openly admitted the midfielder won't reach his sharpest until after November's international break. That could open the door for Dibling, Hackney, and Alcaraz to get more minutes.

Newcastle: The Illusion of Success

The Magpies brought their losing run to an end after painful defeats to Coventry (1:4) and Aston Villa (0:1), beating Crystal Palace 2:0. Yet the final score flattered them considerably – Newcastle recorded just 0.98 xG versus 1.69 for the Eagles. That continues a worrying pattern: across eight Premier League rounds, the visitors have only outperformed their opponents in expected goals once. The underlying stats suggest they are riding their luck; while sitting on 11 real points, their expected points total is just 7.56, and their 12 goals have come from a modest 9.21 xG. So far, their results are far ahead of their performances.

The fitness news, however, is improving. Elanga and Ramsey were both named in the squad for the Crystal Palace game, though Jaissle will ease them back gradually after long spells on the sidelines. By Thursday, Fernandez-Pardo (illness) and Miley (glute discomfort) could be back in contention, meaning only Jaouen and Livramento are certain absentees. The head coach has no intention of handing the cup to a second-string side – in the previous round against Millwall (1:0), he made just three changes and needed a late Willock strike in the 81st minute to get through. Expect another hybrid lineup at Goodison, with a strong core to keep things competitive.

Predicted Lineups

Everton (4-2-3-1): Pickford – Maitland-Niles, O'Brien, Keane, Rohl – Garner, Hackney – Dibling, Alcaraz, George – Barry

Doubtful: Grealish, Branthwaite, Mykolenko Manager: David Moyes

Newcastle (4-2-3-1): Hornicek – Dedic, Tshau, Botman, Hall – N. Gonzalez, Joelinton – Murphy, Willock, Barnes – Wissa

Out: Jaouen, Livramento (both injured) Doubtful: Fernandez-Pardo, Miley Manager: Matthias Jaissle

Referee: Farai Hallam

Hallam finished last season as the most lenient official in the Premier League, though he only refereed five top-flight matches. His baseline stats were 2.6 yellow cards per 21.8 fouls. This campaign, across all competitions, he has become noticeably stricter, averaging around 3.67 bookings per 22.44 fouls.

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: Everton to win at 2.29

The win over Palace might have improved the mood at Newcastle, but it shouldn't be taken at face value. The Magpies are clearly struggling in attack, with their expected-goal numbers lagging behind opponents in seven of eight league fixtures. Their away record is also concerning – recent 1:4 thrashings at Leeds and Coventry, not to mention the narrow 1:0 cup escape at Millwall. Everton have their own share of problems, but they are compact and determined at Goodison: three clean-sheet wins in five official home matches this season and only one defeat. In the League Cup, the Toffees have coasted through two rounds with a 5:0 aggregate scoreline and have openly stated their ambition to win silverware. After back-to-back losses, Moyes's men will be fired up, so backing a home victory at 2.29 looks justified.

Total prediction: Under 2.5 goals at 2.05

In seven of Everton's ten official matches this season, there have been at most two goals scored. Newcastle's cup game against Millwall was also a low-key affair (1:0), and their last two league outings – 0:1 at Aston Villa and 2:0 versus Crystal Palace – stayed well under the mark as well. With both teams struggling for creativity in the final third, the under 2.5 goals option at 2.05 deserves serious attention.