France vs Belgium 05.10.2026 4:1: Score, Result & Match Stats

Zinedine Zidane’s France have a golden chance to stretch their lead at the top of the group, while Belgium are eyeing first place – only a single point separates the two after three matchdays. However, the Red Devils have turned into a bogey opponent for the French: Les Bleus have won all of the last six official meetings, including a hard-fought 1‑0 in Brussels. Can the visitors end that streak without the suspended Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans?

Tactical Analysis: France

Under Zidane, France consistently dominate both possession and territory, but they haven’t always converted that control into a clear-cut chance advantage. In all three group matches, they’ve held the ball for more than 60% of the time, yet the only fixture where they posted a notable xG lead was the 1‑0 win over Belgium (1.22 to 0.69). Against Turkey (1‑0) and Italy (1‑1), the opposition created almost as much danger. That means the hosts are at their most threatening not during long, patient build-ups, but in moments after a turnover or a sudden acceleration – the goal against Turkey came that way, and in Brussels it was an individual run by Michael Olise that decided the match. In this cycle, France look far more dangerous when they can exploit open space quickly than when they try to methodically prise open a set defence.

At home, expect the French to once again push high, immediately press to win the ball back after losing it, and then speed up the transition. On the right flank, Olise should get more one‑on‑one opportunities, cutting inside where he’s a threat both with a pass and a shot. Kylian Mbappé is still absent, but France have already played their last two games without the captain, so there’s no need to rebuild the attack from scratch. A more recent loss is Dayot Upamecano’s suspension, with Ibrahima Konaté also unavailable; that leaves the centre‑back pool reduced to Lucas Jaque, Maxime Lacroix, Leny Yoro and Jonathan Kalułu. The most likely pairing is Jaque and Lacroix, both of whom featured in the first meeting with Belgium. So the issue is more about a lack of depth and experience than a completely new back line.

Tactical Analysis: Belgium

Belgium have taken six points from nine, conceding just one goal. But the underlying numbers tell a different story: their opponents have racked up a combined 4.3 xG across the three matches. The 3‑0 win over Turkey was particularly revealing – goalkeeper Lammens had to make eight saves. Going forward, the Red Devils are at their most effective when they have space for quick counter‑attacks. That worked best against Italy (2‑0), where the hosts opened up after the break and left gaps. Against France (0‑1), such opportunities were rare: Zidane’s side kept the ball for long spells, pressed to hinder Belgium’s build‑up, and allowed the visitors only two shots on target.

In Saint‑Denis, Belgium will likely again look for fast breaks after winning the ball, but now they have to reorganise without the suspended De Bruyne and Tielemans. Both started all three previous matches, helping the team beat the pressure in midfield, so the visitors may find it harder to move the ball forward with short passes, especially under French pressing. One option is to rely more on long balls aimed at Charles De Ketelaere or Romelu Lukaku, hoping for second balls and then a burst from the wide players. De Ketelaere offers more movement between the lines, while Lukaku provides a physical target to hold up play. The deep‑lying work can be partly handled by Lavie, who is comfortable receiving the ball under pressure and can help maintain the link between defence and attack.

Predicted Lineups

France (4‑3‑3): Maignan – Kounde, Jaque, Lacroix, Truffert – Cherki, Camavinga, Rabiot – Olise, Dembele, Barcola Unavailable: Mbappe, Konate, Zaire‑Emery, Saliba, T. Hernandez (all injured), Upamecano (suspended), Thuram, Tchouameni, Kante (not in squad) Head coach: Zinedine Zidane

Belgium (4‑3‑3): Lammens – Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper – Raskin, Lavie, Vanaken – Moreira, De Ketelaere, Godts Unavailable: De Bruyne, Tielemans (both suspended), Courtois, Doku, Onana (not in squad) Head coach: Marc van Bommel

Referee

Nicolas Walsh (Scotland) The Scottish official takes a strict approach when handling international matches. In eight of his last eleven national‑team games, Walsh has shown at least four yellow cards. He also sets a low threshold for physical contact, averaging 29 fouls per match over that period.

Prediction and Bet

Main pick: France to win with a handicap of -1.5 @ 2.35 In Brussels, even after making nine changes to the starting XI, France managed to camp in Belgium’s half and grind out a 1‑0 victory. Now, without the suspended De Bruyne and Tielemans, the visitors will find it even tougher to escape French pressure, which increases the risk of turnovers and forces Belgium to defend deep near their own box. The Red Devils already allow opponents to create plenty of chances – their single goal conceded in three games owes a lot to Lammens’ excellent form. Add to that France’s six‑match winning streak in official head‑to‑heads. At home, Zidane’s side can win the ball back even more often in dangerous areas, piling the pressure on the Belgian defence and boosting the likelihood of turning their territorial dominance into a two‑goal margin. Backing France -1.5 seems the logical call.

Goals pick: Both teams to score – No @ 2.30 In the first meeting, France limited Belgium to just 0.69 xG and two shots on target – and that was with De Bruyne and Tielemans available. Without those two key midfielders, the visitors may struggle even more to bypass the press and regularly deliver the ball into dangerous areas. Zidane’s side reliably control possession and can keep the opponent from launching meaningful counters for long stretches. If the hosts impose that script again, Belgium will find it hard to create consistent threats on Maignan’s goal. So taking “both teams to score – No” looks like a solid secondary wager.