Hajduk Split vs Ajax 15.10.2026: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

The opening matchday of the Conference League group stage sees Hajduk Split welcome Ajax to the Poljud Stadium. The hosts arrive on the back of a spirited comeback victory over Dinamo Zagreb and will look to extend their formidable home record. Ajax boast a potent attack but have stumbled twice in a row in the Eredivisie. The question is whether the passionate Split crowd can help their side contain the Dutch giants.

Tactical Analysis: Hajduk Split – Home Fortress and Attacking Depth

Gonzalo García’s men enter this European fixture in high spirits after a 2-1 comeback win against Dinamo Zagreb that propelled them to the top of the Croatian league. Their home form has been particularly imposing: four consecutive league victories at the Poljud, with a combined score of 9-1. A full stadium should provide an extra edge against Ajax.

However, the results mask certain frailties. In their last away match, Hajduk suffered a 0-3 defeat to Rijeka, and García admitted after the derby that his side occasionally make costly errors. Against Ajax, such lapses must be eliminated, as the visitors thrive on exploiting space. The hosts do not rely on a single star: Mislav Šego has 10 goals and 1 assist in 17 appearances, Marin Šotiček has contributed 7 goal involvements in 16 games, and Abdouli Sanyang has 2 goals and 3 assists in 16 outings. Quick flank attacks and set pieces could prove decisive, especially if Hajduk can disrupt Ajax’s build-up play.

Tactical Analysis: Ajax – Lethal Attack but Squad Concerns

Ajax have slowed down in the league recently, drawing 2-2 with Excelsior and 1-1 with NEC Nijmegen. Yet their attack remains prolific: 22 goals in 8 Eredivisie matches, and all three away league games won with a combined 11-1 margin. In the last outing against NEC, Tolu Arokodare opened the scoring in the 7th minute, and Simon Adingra made his debut off the bench. The new signing can add pace and width, though his chemistry with teammates is still developing.

Injuries and absences complicate matters. Kasper Dolberg and Daley Blind are out injured, while Anton Goei, Caio Henrique, and Steven Berghuis are doubtful. Yves Bissouma is not registered for European competition. Up front, coach Michel Sánchez can call on Arokodare (7 goals, 2 assists in 10 matches) and Marcos Leonardo (2 goals in 10 games).

Predicted Lineups

Hajduk Split (4-2-3-1) Silić – Akapandie, Marešić, Račić, Hrgović – del Moral, Fayad – Sanyang, de Almeida, Šotiček – Šego

Unavailable: Brajković (injured), Pajaziti and Ivušić (both doubtful) Coach: Gonzalo García

Ajax (4-3-3) ter Stegen – Róża, Kérer, Bas, Weijndal – Amrabat, Klaassen, Brandt – Tsygankov, Arokodare, Gluh

Unavailable: Dolberg, Blind (both injured), Bissouma (not registered), Herkens, Henrique, Goei, Berghuis (all doubtful) Coach: Michel Sánchez

Referee

The match will be officiated by Austrian referee Kristijan-Petru Čokirka. He maintains a high foul threshold but does not tolerate rough play, issuing yellow cards promptly. This season across all competitions, he averages 3.71 yellow cards per game with 19.33 fouls. In seven matches, he has sent off a player only once and awarded two penalties.

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: Hajduk Split not to lose (Double Chance) at odds 2.59 García’s side have not lost a single home match this season in nine outings, including four qualifiers for the Europa League and Conference League. Ajax, meanwhile, have been less convincing recently, failing to win three of their last five fixtures. Added to that, their squad issues could prove costly in Split. With the Poljud crowd behind them, the hosts should be able to compete and take at least a point.

Total goals prediction: Over 3.5 at odds 2.43 Both teams are prolific in attack, not only domestically but also in European competition. Hajduk have scored 13 goals in their last four Conference League qualifiers, conceding six. Ajax have netted 22 times in six European matches this season, while allowing 10. Expect an open, high-scoring affair.