Hamburg vs Stuttgart 17.10.2026: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Both sides are riding a wave of confidence after the international break. Hamburg strung together their second straight league victory last time out, hauling themselves clear of the relegation scrap – after five rounds, the club sits on six points in 12th place. Stuttgart are parked right next to them with an identical haul, and midweek the Swabians brushed aside Slovan in the Champions League with a commanding 3:0 scoreline.

Hamburg Have Woken Up, but the Leaks Remain

The season opener was a nightmare for Hamburg: three straight losses with a combined scoreline of 0:12. Merlin Polzin's outfit, however, had already snapped that streak before the international pause by beating Köln 2:1 at home, and followed it up with a 3:2 success away to Hoffenheim last weekend. The turning point in that match was Bernardo's red card on 65 minutes – at that stage Hamburg were trailing 1:2. Playing a man up, they drew level through Moffi, and Muhaym struck in the fourth minute of added time to snatch all three points.

Despite the upturn in results, Hamburg simply cannot stop conceding. Across five rounds they have yet to keep a single clean sheet, shipping 15 goals in total. Even in the two wins, against Köln and Hoffenheim, the opposition found the net three times against them. The attack has dragged the club out of its slump, but the defensive side of the game remains worryingly fragile.

The most significant blow for Hamburg is the loss of captain Nikolai Remberg, who tore his cruciate ligament in the Hoffenheim clash and faces several months on the sidelines. There could be further trouble in midfield: Sambi Lokonga trained at reduced intensity after that game and his participation is not yet confirmed. Polzin has floated Kofi Amoako as one candidate to fill Remberg's role. The news is not all bad – Grønbæk has returned to part of the team training and could make the squad. The Dane has already contributed two assists in four appearances. Yatta's fitness will be decided after the final round of tests.

Stuttgart Create Plenty, but Allow Plenty Too

Stuttgart have been reborn since the pause, reeling off two wins on the bounce. At the weekend they dispatched Paderborn 2:0, securing their first away victory in the Bundesliga in six attempts. Midweek, the Swabians travelled to Bratislava for their Champions League assignment and comfortably beat Slovan 3:0. Across the two fixtures, the club have scored five times without reply, generating 4.66 xG from 16 shots on target.

Yet the two consecutive clean sheets should not be mistaken for a defensive renaissance – in those games Stuttgart allowed their opponents a combined 2.74 xG. Indeed, their expected goals against tally of 12.98 is among the worst in the Bundesliga, better only than Borussia Mönchengladbach's 13.04 and Augsburg's 14.67. On the attacking side, things look far healthier: over five league rounds they have accumulated 10.06 xG and have failed to score in just one fixture – the clash with Borussia Dortmund.

Before the trip north, Sebastian Hoeneß will be awaiting news on Maximilian Mittelstädt. The defender completed the Paderborn game but required stitches afterwards for a gash on his heel. He missed the Champions League tie with Slovan, yet could well be back for the Hamburg test. Other notable absentees include Nartey and Tomas, who continue their rehabilitation from injuries.

Predicted Lineups for Hamburg – Stuttgart

Hamburg (3-4-3): Heuer Fernandes – Kappaldy, Bornauw, Omari – El-Wahdi, Amoako, Nadi, Möller Wolffe – Vieira, Poulsen, Adeline

Out: Daka, Remberg (both injured), Mario Vuskovic (suspended), Sambi Lokonga, Grønbæk, Yatta (all doubts)

Head coach: Merlin Polzin

Stuttgart (4-2-3-1): Seimen – Vagnoman, Jeltsch, Chabot, Hendrix – Prömel, Stiller – Leweling, Undav, Wohlgemuth, Demirović

Out: Al-Dakhil, Diehl, Malanga, Nartey, Tomas, Zagadou (all injured), Mittelstädt (doubt)

Head coach: Sebastian Hoeneß

Referee

Robert Hartmann is not known for flashing cards excessively. Across his last 20 Bundesliga matches, he has averaged just 3.55 yellow cards per game and recorded 23.9 fouls per contest. Over that same stretch, he has dismissed two players and awarded six penalties.

Prediction: Hamburg Double Chance at 2.00

The main call: Hamburg have been transformed since that disastrous start and are riding two consecutive victories. They will surely look to bank more points on home soil – last season, the club lost just five league matches at their own ground. What is more, in the previous meeting with Stuttgart at home, Hamburg came out on top 2:1. Stuttgart, for their part, face their third consecutive away fixture and carry fatigue from the midweek trip to Slovakia. Their travel record hardly inspires confidence either – just one win in their last six Bundesliga games on the road. The pick: Hamburg to avoid defeat at 2.00.

On the goals front: both sides have plenty of reasons to find the net. Hamburg have sharpened up in attack with five goals in their last two matches but are still waiting for their first clean sheet. Stuttgart create chances galore, racking up 4.66 xG combined in Paderborn and Bratislava. Their recent shutouts were hard-won, though – opponents generated 2.74 expected goals against them. Given how open both teams are without the ball, scoring opportunities should crop up at either end. A supplementary angle: over 3.5 goals at 1.90.