Kashima Antlers vs V-Varen Nagasaki 17.10.2026: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Defending champions Kashima Antlers are already putting their title defence on shaky ground. The side has dropped far too many points early in the season, and now, in the tenth round of the J1 League, they welcome newly-promoted Varen Nagasaki to their home ground. Can the hosts finally bag a full three points and steady the ship?

Kashima Antlers Analysis

After eight matches this campaign, Kashima have collected only 13 points and sit a disappointing eighth in the table. The reigning champions of Japan cannot seem to fix their defensive woes. Toru Oniki’s men have conceded in every single game so far, and their winless run now stretches to four league matches. During the J1 League break, Kashima did manage to reach the Emperor’s Cup Round of 16, beating modest second-tier side Kofu 3–1 at home, yet even then they failed to keep a clean sheet.

In the eighth round, the Antlers played out a wild 3–3 draw away at Kawasaki. Time and again, the champions’ backline showed its fragility. Over the last four league outings, Kashima have shipped ten goals. The fact they scraped a point against Kawasaki felt more like fortune than fitness of form: the hosts dominated them in expected goals (xG 1.09 for Kashima vs 2.32 for Kawasaki), shots on target (7–11), and corner kicks (2–3). Oniki has plenty to sort out if his team is to defend its crown.

Varen Nagasaki Analysis

Managed by Takuya Takagi, Varen Nagasaki impressed in the second division last season, finishing runners-up and earning promotion to the top flight. But elite-level J1 football is an entirely different beast. After eight games, they have just eight points and occupy 15th spot. The newcomers have, however, taken points in their last two matches, suggesting they are adapting.

Most recently, Nagasaki held Cerezo Osaka to a 1–1 draw at home. The stats paint a picture of a team that rode its luck: they lost the xG battle 1.27 to 1.99, and were outshot on target 2–6. Only a heroic performance from their goalkeeper — beaten only by a penalty — kept them in the match. Takagi will know that his side cannot rely on such fortune every week if they hope to stay up.

Prediction and Bet

Coming out of the international break, Oniki’s men finally registered a clean sheet in a friendly against Gamba Osaka. That small step in the right direction, combined with Nagasaki’s habit of dropping points even against sides of similar calibre, suggests the champions have enough to claim victory here. The visitors simply do not look ready to take points off the defending champions. Kashima to win can be backed at odds of 1.55.

Looking at the goal markets: Kashima average 2.11 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per league game this season. Nagasaki score 1.22 and concede 1.78 on average. The combined average total goals for both teams lands at 3.89 and 3.00 respectively. We can expect at least three goals to be scored in this encounter. Over 2.5 total goals at 1.72 is the secondary play.