Real Sociedad B vs Almería 17.10.2026: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Real Sociedad B’s slide down the Segunda División table has been alarming – four consecutive defeats, eleven goals shipped, and a drop to 19th place. Yet for all their defensive chaos, the Basque side keeps carving out high-quality chances. Almería, meanwhile, are soaring: six straight wins, top of the league, and a defence that has tightened up considerably. When these two meet at the Reale Arena’s Zubieta facility, the ingredients point toward an open, goal-filled contest.

Tactical Analysis

Real Sociedad B: Clinical Attack, Porous Defence

Jon Ansotegi’s side have conceded 17 goals in nine rounds, a tally that screams relegation trouble. But look beneath the results: even in losses to Granada (2–3) and Celta Vigo B (1–4), the Basques generated 2.32 and 2.33 expected goals (xG) respectively. In Vigo they fired off 23 shots despite trailing 0–3 by the 36th minute. The attack remains sharp; the problem is a defence that repeatedly gets carved open on quick transitions.

At home the record is especially grim: just one point from four matches. Ansotegi should receive a boost up front, with Carrera potentially returning from first‑team duties and Mariezkurrena back from a two‑game suspension. However, Beitia is out injured, and the availability of Fraga and Marchal depends on first‑team needs.

Almería: Relentless Momentum, but xG Hints at Luck

Javier García Pimienta’s men have strung together six wins with a combined score of 13–3. Most recently they steamrolled Leganés 3–0, limiting the visitors to a mere 0.40 xG. Prior to that, against Burgos (2–1), Almería registered 25 attempts and came from behind after the interval. Arribas ties the midfield together, Sipenga provides width and incision, and De la Fuente bagged a brace against Leganés.

On the road the story improved after rocky starts (losses to Tenerife and Sabadell), with clean‑sheet wins over Córdoba (2–0) and Mallorca (1–0). Yet the underlying numbers suggest some fortune: only five goals conceded against 10.37 xGA – that gap indicates opponents have been wasteful. In midfield Dzodić has deputised effectively for the injured Vesga, while Guedes has only just returned to training after surgery. Defender Eli remains sidelined.

Predicted Lneups

Real Sociedad B (4–2–3–1)

• Folgado
• Ruperez, Calderón, Kitta, Balda
• Carbonel, Lebarbier
• Díaz, Gorosabel, Astiazarán
• Carrera

Unavailable: Orobengoa, Beitia (injured); Fraga, Marchal (doubtful). Head coach: Jon Ansotegi.

Almería (4–2–3–1)

• Fernández
• Chirino, Chumi, Bonini, Alex Muñoz
• Dzodić, Javi Muñoz
• Junyent, Arribas, Sipenga
• De la Fuente

Unavailable: Eli, Guedes (injured); Vesga (doubtful). Head coach: Javier García Pimienta.

Prediction and Bet

Main tip: Almería to win at 2.03

The Basques leave too much space after losing possession, and Almería’s Arribas and Sipenga are perfectly equipped to exploit those gaps with pace and precise passing. The visitors have won six in a row and conceded only once in their last five league outings. Meanwhile, Real Sociedad B have managed just a single point from four home games. The league leaders look well placed to extend that miserable home run. We rate the likelihood of an Almería victory at 60% – anything above 1.67 is value territory.

Goal line tip: Over 3.5 goals at 2.56

Almería have already scored three or more three times this season, and against such a vulnerable backline they can comfortably beat the bookmakers’ total on their own. But the hosts can contribute too: in their last two matches they generated over 2 xG, and the return of Carrera and Mariezkurrena further bolsters the attack. Moreover, the fact that Almería have conceded only five goals despite facing 10.37 xGA suggests that opponents have underperformed in front of goal – that luck could easily flip on Zubieta. We give this bet a 45% probability, with any price above 2.22 offering an edge.