Roma vs Genoa 17.10.2026: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Roma legend Daniele De Rossi returns to the Stadio Olimpico as an opponent, hoping to hand his former club their first Serie A defeat of the 2026/27 campaign. The Giallorossi, however, have won each of the last four home meetings against Genoa, making the Grifoni’s task a daunting one.

Tactical Analysis: Roma

Roma have fared far better domestically than in Europe this season. After six league rounds, they remain unbeaten, but their Champions League campaign suffered a painful blow. In a wild encounter with Real Madrid, the Romans led 2-0 until the 82nd minute, only to concede three goals from corner kicks and lose 3-4. That collapse is especially relevant ahead of facing Genoa: De Rossi’s side finished second in Serie A last season for goals from set pieces, trailing only champions Inter.

In Serie A, Claudio Ranieri’s men have looked far more solid, but a mounting injury crisis threatens to derail their momentum. Midfield engine Manu Koné and chief creator Paulo Dybala both picked up knocks against Real Madrid. First-choice goalkeeper Mile Svilar was already sidelined until November. To make matters worse, top scorer and Serie A leading marksman Doniell Malen—author of a brace against Madrid—is suspended after his red card in the goalless draw with Como.

Tactical Analysis: Genoa

Genoa’s season started disastrously, with zero wins before the international break. But De Rossi used those three weeks to reshape the team tactically and mentally. The result was their best performance of the campaign: a 2-1 victory over Fiorentina. The Grifoni abandoned their usual three‑centre‑back setup, switched to a 4‑2‑3‑1, attacked the flanks aggressively, and scored twice inside the first 15 minutes. However, after half‑time they dropped too deep and allowed Fiorentina back into the game—a dangerous habit against top opposition.

With Sou and Meité injured, De Rossi’s midfield choices paid off: Hamed Traoré impressed in the middle, while Junior Messias operated higher up. The same configuration is expected at the Olimpico. Genoa’s most dangerous weapon will be set pieces, specifically crosses aimed at defender Johan Vásquez. The Mexican has already scored twice this autumn—a late equaliser against Frosinone in Serie A and the winner against Südtirol in the Coppa Italia. Veteran Stephan El Shaarawy, who played 348 matches for Roma across two spells, will be desperate to prove a point against his former club.

Predicted Lineups

Roma (3‑4‑2‑1): Gollini – Ghilardi, Balerdi, Hermoso – Lulli, De Roon, Pisilli, Wesley – Soulé, Mora – Castro.

Out: Cristante, Koné, Svilar, Dybala (all injured), Malen (suspended). Coach: Gian Piero Gasperini.

Genoa (4‑2‑3‑1): Bello – Sabelli, Marcandalli, Estigor, Vásquez – Traoré, Frendrup – Ellertsson, Messias, El Shaarawy – Osmajić.

Out: Nuredini, Venturino, Sou, Colombo, Meité, Ehizibue, Havel (all injured). Coach: Daniele De Rossi.

Referee

Rosario Abisso takes charge. Last season he did not stand out statistically among Serie A referees, but in his last 17 top‑flight matches he has shown fewer than four yellow cards only six times. Penalties are rare under Abisso: just one in his previous 13 Serie A games.

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: Genoa double chance (X2) at 2.49

Early in the season, Roma impressed with their man‑to‑man pressing and the superb form of Dybala and Malen. But the team has stalled: they have failed to win any of their last three official matches and lost the expected‑goals battle in all of them. Now they face a highly motivated De Rossi and a Genoa side that is finally finding its feet—at the worst possible time for the hosts. Roma’s weakness on set pieces, their severe injury list (including the suspended Malen and possibly Dybala), and Genoa’s freshness after the break all point to the visitors avoiding defeat.

Total goals prediction: Under 2.5 goals at 1.99

Genoa will play far more conservatively in the capital than they did at home against Fiorentina. Roma, missing their key attacking outlets, are unlikely to score freely against a side that has kept opponents to an xGA of 0.80 or below in each of the last two league rounds. A low‑scoring affair looks the most probable outcome.