Union vs Borussia Dortmund 17.10.2026: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Last weekend, Union Berlin finally broke their losing streak, securing their first victory of the current Bundesliga campaign by narrowly defeating Elversberg 1-0. Despite this much-needed win, the capital side still finds themselves in a precarious position, sitting 16th in the table with only four points after five matchdays. Meanwhile, Borussia Dortmund dropped their first points of the season, settling for a 2-2 home draw against Werder Bremen—a result that cost them the top spot. The Black and Yellows now occupy second place with 13 points, trailing league leaders Freiburg solely on goal difference.

Tactical Analysis

Union Berlin’s Defensive Concerns

Union’s victory over Elversberg was hard-fought, with substitute Livan Burcu netting the decisive goal in the 81st minute. The hosts dominated the shot count (19–7) and generated far more danger, posting 1.13 xG against the visitors’ 0.24. For a side that had conceded 17 goals in the previous four rounds, this defensive control was a significant step forward. Yet one match is far too small a sample to suggest a lasting improvement at the back.

Before that clean sheet, Union had shipped 17 goals in four fixtures, making them the league’s worst defensive record at that point (only Borussia Mönchengladbach’s 18 conceded after five games is worse). Moreover, Mauro Lustrinelli’s men have allowed 11.07 xGA, a figure that only four other Bundesliga teams surpass in defensive fragility.

In the squad, Ivan Ilić is still recovering from an appendectomy and remains unavailable for full team training. Christian Marggraf is also out with a serious knee injury. The availability of Aljoscha Latté-Latt and Tio Nsoki is uncertain due to muscle issues, while Josip Juranović is building fitness after illness. The potential absence of the right‑back would be particularly noticeable in advancing the ball: in three league appearances this season, he has already provided two assists.

Borussia Dortmund’s Attack Lacking Bite

Dortmund endured a difficult week. In the Bundesliga, they let a two‑goal lead slip at home against Werder Bremen after the 85th minute, ending in a disappointing 2‑2 draw—their first dropped points of the season. Midweek, Nico Kovač’s side suffered a 1‑0 loss to Bodø/Glimt in Norway during the Champions League group stage.

Overall, the team’s attacking output has not been impressive. Dortmund have scored 11 goals in five Bundesliga matches, a total surpassed by six other clubs. Their xG of 8.96 ranks them tenth in the division. The Champions League trip to Norway produced the worst creative performance of the season: just nine shots and 0.79 xG. It was also the first time this campaign that Dortmund finished a game without finding the net.

Nico Schlotterbeck was rested in Norway for load management but is expected to return against Union. Julian Ryerson and Carney Chukwuemeka both got minutes in the Champions League—Ryerson is again pushing for a starting spot on the right, while Chukwuemeka’s inclusion from the off depends on Kovač’s tactical choice. Yannik Mané has recovered from injury and made the squad for the trip to Norway. However, Emre Can, Georgios Konstantelias, and Matías Lerma remain sidelined through injury.

Predicted Lineups

Union Berlin (4-4-2): Rönnow – Haberer, van den Bosch, Uduokhai, Rothe – Ebisch, Schäfer, Hedira, Imeri – Chong, Skarke Unavailable: Marggraf (injured), Ilić (illness), Latté‑Latt, Nsoki, Juranović (all doubtful) Head coach: Mauro Lustrinelli

Borussia Dortmund (3-4-3): Kobel – Gadou, Anton, Schlotterbeck – Ryerson, Bellingham, Nmecha, Svensson – Nwaneri, Guirassy, Beyer Unavailable: Can, Konstantelias, Lerma (all injured) Head coach: Nico Kovač

Referee

Daniel Schläger will officiate the match. The referee is not known for making game‑changing decisions frequently and is far from strict. Over his last 20 Bundesliga appearances, he has averaged 3.55 yellow cards and 20.65 fouls per game. During that same stretch, he has issued five red cards and awarded four penalties.

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: Union Berlin not to lose (odds 2.42) Against Elversberg, Union showed greater defensive discipline, and Lustrinelli plans to keep the core of his defence intact. That gives the hosts a chance to maintain compactness against Dortmund, who face a quick turnaround after the trip to Norway. We believe Union can impose a tight, competitive battle on home soil and come away with at least a point. Backing “Union not to lose” at 2.42 looks appealing.

Total goals prediction: Under 2.5 (odds 2.50) Neither side has impressed in terms of chance creation so far this season: Union’s xG stands at 5.69, Dortmund’s at 8.96. Union limited their opponents to very little in the last round, and Dortmund’s attack in Norway generated only 0.79 xG. Expect the home side to stay compact without the ball and keep the game’s pace under control. A high‑scoring affair seems unlikely, so the under 2.5 goals bet at 2.50 is worth consideration.