Valencia vs Athletic 17.10.2026: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Valencia will be hoping that a change in the dugout can snap them out of a prolonged slump. However, Javier Aguirre’s debut did not yield a victory, and now they face an Athletic Bilbao side that is finding its stride. The last two league meetings at Mestalla went in favor of the hosts. Can Valencia extend that run?

Valencia: Defensive Frailties Plague New Era

The team has suffered a disastrous start to the season, collecting only five points from eight matches and occupying a spot just above the relegation zone before the ninth round. Their sole win came against Alavés (1-0), while they have lost five other encounters. Defensive vulnerability is a major concern: 15 goals conceded, including eight in their last two home fixtures against Barcelona (0-5) and Real Sociedad (2-3). Former Mexico boss Javier Aguirre was brought in to steady the ship, but his first match ended in a 2-2 draw with Racing Santander. So far, the managerial change has not produced a noticeable improvement, and lapses at the back continue to cost them points.

Valencia’s lengthy injury list compounds the problem. Diego López, Umar Sadiq, and Sergi Caños are all sidelined. Luis Rioja and Dimitri Foulquier are doubtful. Given these absences, Aguirre faces a tough task in engineering a quick turnaround. The upcoming match offers a chance to change the narrative: Valencia have won the last two La Liga meetings with Athletic, but replicating that run given their current form will be extremely challenging.

Athletic Bilbao: Fresh Legs and a Solid Backline

Athletic are gradually building momentum after a slow start. In their last four full league outings, they have two wins and two draws, conceding just one goal in that stretch. Their previous fixture against Rayo Vallecano was abandoned in the first half due to fan protests, meaning the Basques carried a lighter workload heading into this trip. A stingy defense could prove a major obstacle for a Valencia side that has struggled to score consistently.

Key absences persist for Athletic. Nico Williams is still recovering from injury and will almost certainly miss out. Attacking midfielder Oihan Sancet is also unavailable. Aymeric Laporte’s participation is doubtful: the central defender was left out of the matchday squad last time due to illness and only returned to partial training on October 15. As a result, Athletic could be missing three important starters.

Predicted Lineups

Valencia (5-4-1): Dimitrievski – Maffeo, Diakhaby, Pepeleu, De Haas, Gayà – Raba, Ugrinić, G. Rodríguez, Guerra – Duro.

• Out: D. López, Sadiq, Caños (all injured), Foulquier, Rioja (both doubtful)
• Coach: Javier Aguirre

Athletic Bilbao (4-2-3-1): Simón – Areso, Álvarez, Paredes, Berchiche – Guerenabarrena, de Galarreta – Navarro, Canales, Berenger – I. Williams.

• Out: Sancet, Egilus (both injured), N. Williams, Laporte (both doubtful)
• Coach: Edin Terzić

Referee: Adrián Cordero Vega

Cordero Vega has officiated two matches this La Liga season, averaging six yellow cards and 26 fouls per game, with one red card issued. Over his career, he averages 4.54 yellow cards per match. He is considered a fairly strict referee who is not afraid to reach for his pocket.

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: Athletic are gaining momentum and are unbeaten in four league matches. Valencia have been thoroughly unimpressive at home, losing three of their four games, with their only point coming from a goalless draw against Celta Vigo. Moreover, the Basques have a slight edge in freshness because their previous match was cut short. Considering the current form of both sides and Valencia’s poor record at Mestalla, backing an Athletic win at 2.29 seems reasonable.

Total goals prediction: Athletic have tightened up defensively, conceding just one goal in their last four league games. Valencia have struggled to score, netting in only one of their four home matches. Additionally, two of Athletic’s recent away trips ended with two or fewer goals. The same trend applied to five of the last six head-to-head meetings across all competitions, four of which finished 1-0. Given these patterns, taking under 2.5 goals at 1.75 is a logical choice.