Castellonense vs Almería 27.10.2026: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

For the first time in their history, Castellonense will step onto the Copa del Rey stage, and they travel into this landmark occasion armed with three consecutive victories on home soil. Almeria, meanwhile, were left to digest a gut-wrenching late collapse in their latest league outing: after racking up seven straight wins, the Andalusians let a victory slip through their fingers in the dying minutes and consequently surrendered top spot in the Segunda División. The central question is whether the fearless fourth-tier debutants can take full advantage of the favourite's recent misfortune.

A home fortress and a momentous debut

Castellonense only clinched their place in the Segunda Federación for the first time last season, but the step up in level has hardly troubled them. Iñaki Rodríguez's side have won five of their seven matches this campaign, scoring twelve goals and conceding six. Their most recent league assignment showcased their powers of recovery: following a 2:3 defeat at the hands of Deportiva Minera in the previous round, they travelled to Intercity and produced a polished 2:0 victory, breaking the deadlock early before adding a second after the interval to put the outcome beyond doubt.

The hosts' most formidable weapon, though, is their record in front of their own supporters. All three league fixtures at their home ground have ended in triumph — Murcia were dispatched 2:1, Cieza edged out 1:0, and the Real Murcia reserves were brushed aside 3:0. The aggregate scoreline across those matches reads an impressive 6:1 in their favour. Naturally, the upcoming challenge represents a significantly sterner examination, yet a vocal home crowd and the familiar artificial surface could go a long way toward narrowing the considerable chasm in quality.

Almeria: a win squandered and a reshuffle on the horizon

García Pimienta's charges occupy second place in the Segunda, having accumulated 25 points from eleven fixtures with a goal difference of 22:9. The seven-match winning streak that had carried them to the summit came to an abrupt halt in their home meeting with Real Oviedo, which finished 2:2. For 87 minutes, Almeria seemed to be cruising with a 2:0 cushion — but first a long-range effort clawed one back, and then defender Jorge Pulido inadvertently turned the ball into his own net. Instead of registering a record-extending eighth consecutive victory, the team came away with just a single point and lost their place at the head of the table.

The manner of that late capitulation was no coincidence. Oviedo seized control of proceedings after the restart, while the home side failed to capitalise on a series of counter-attacking openings. A week earlier, Almeria had also conceded twice against Real Sociedad B, even though they ultimately prevailed 4:2. Their away form shows seven goals in five league games, but the underlying numbers are considerably less flattering than the results suggest: the side average just 0.92 xG for while shipping 1.56 xGA against. The fixture list adds further complications, with tricky trips to Eibar and Girona scheduled immediately after the cup tie. Unsurprisingly, the coaching staff are preparing to rotate their starting eleven, with the centre of defence expected to see fresh faces.

Prediction: Castellonense to cover a one-and-a-half-goal handicap

The main selection: although two divisions separate these sides, Castellonense have won every home match while conceding just once on their own patch. Almeria clearly possess the more talented squad, yet their away performances have not always been backed up by the quality of chances produced, and they arrive here both smarting from a painful draw and facing the prospect of significant rotation. On artificial turf, the hosts are well equipped to make life uncomfortable and avoid a heavy defeat. Therefore, the value lies with Castellonense on a +1.5 handicap.

The goals angle: Castellonense have found the net in every home fixture this term, while Almeria's backline has been breached twice in each of their last two outings — by Real Sociedad B and Oviedo respectively. At the other end of the pitch, the visitors boast one of the most prolific attacks in the Segunda, with 22 goals netted in just 11 rounds. Even allowing for a rotating lineup, they should possess enough firepower to register; equally, the hosts are more than capable of punishing lapses by a higher-status opponent. As a result, a wager on both teams to score looks well founded.