Deportiva Minera vs Cartagena 04.11.2026: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Two years ago, Deportiva Minera knocked Alavés out of the Spanish Cup and then met Real Madrid. Now the club from a mining settlement hosts Cartagena in a regional derby, arriving on a four-match winning run while the visitors have lost twice on the road. Can Minera again spring a surprise against a more famous opponent?

Deportiva Minera: Four Straight Wins and a Cup Memory

Minera have collected 17 points from eight rounds in the Segunda Federación and sit third, one point behind the leader. Sandroni’s side has five victories and a 13:6 goal difference. At home they remain unbeaten: four wins and one draw, with 10 goals scored and only 4 conceded. Three of those five home matches ended with a clean sheet.

After a 0:2 defeat to Alcoyano, Minera reeled off four consecutive wins: 2:0 against La Nucía, 3:2 against Castellonense, 2:0 against Yeclano and 1:0 against Siesu. In the most recent round, Boris Kuassi scored the winner from a corner in the 84th minute. The club’s cup pedigree is fresh: in December 2024 they eliminated Alavés on penalties after a 2:2 draw, then fell 0:5 to Real Madrid. Now they face a derby at the compact Ángel Celdrán, where support from the stands could be important.

Cartagena: Away Troubles and Selection Worries

Cartagena have 15 points from ten rounds in the Primera Federación, scoring 14 goals and conceding 11. Iñigo Vélez’s team has four wins, and its last three home matches all ended in victory with an aggregate score of 8:1. Away from home, however, the picture is different: after a 1:4 loss to Villarreal 2, the visitors went down 0:2 to Real Madrid 2.

In their most recent match, Cartagena conceded twice inside the first 17 minutes. They took the initiative after the break but could not equalize. The cup tie comes with squad problems: Toni Villa and Pablo Clavería are injured, while Asenjo’s involvement is doubtful. Vélez does not intend to sacrifice the tournament for the league, though rotation is possible. On Minera’s small pitch, Cartagena’s class advantage may be less noticeable, especially in duels for second balls and in set-piece situations.

Prediction and Bet

Main selection: Deportiva Minera to win at 3.00. Minera have won four matches in a row and have taken 13 points from 15 at home. Cartagena play a division higher, but they have lost their last two away games by an aggregate score of 1:6. The hosts have already knocked a stronger opponent out of the cup, and on a compact field they can force more duels. Given the current form and the visitors’ personnel losses, another upset is possible. The estimated probability is 40%; anything above 2.50 is playable.

Goals selection: both teams to score — yes at 1.82. Minera scored in all five home matches, while Cartagena conceded six goals in their last two away games. The visitors have 14 goals in ten league rounds and will arrive at the regional derby eager to end their poor away run. The higher-division side’s defense is vulnerable, and a clean sheet for the hosts is hard to expect. The estimated probability is 60%; anything above 1.67 is playable.