Dynamo Dresden vs Schalke 28.10.2026: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

The first round of the DFB-Pokal brings together two sides who are far from full strength. Dynamo Dresden, struggling near the bottom of the 2. Bundesliga, are missing key defenders, while Schalke sit in the Bundesliga relegation zone and are desperate for goals while coping with an ever-growing injury list. With so many absences on both sides, the question is: which team can dig deep enough to advance?

Tactical Analysis: Dynamo Dresden

After nine rounds in Germany's second division, Dresden find themselves just above the relegation places. Their recent form is shaky: only one victory in their last five matches, and they were thrashed 3‑0 by Holstein Kiel immediately before this cup tie – a side that had not won a single game until that point. Playing at home has not given the Schwarz‑Gelben any real advantage, especially when facing stronger opponents. In front of their own fans, Thomas Stamm’s squad lost to Hertha BSC (1‑2) and VfL Bochum (1‑2), both teams whose quality is closer to the top flight.

The defensive unit is the team's clear weak spot. Dresden allow their opponents an average of 1.84 expected goals (xG) per match – already a high number – and actually concede more in reality, letting in two goals per game. There is little hope of improvement because the treatment room is full of crucial defenders. Centre‑back Thomas Keller (one goal in five appearances this 2026/27 season), defensive leader Kenneth Schmidt, and experienced Lars Bening are all unavailable.

Tactical Analysis: Schalke

Schalke’s readjustment to the Bundesliga is proving painful. With just one win from seven fixtures, they occupy a relegation spot and boast the worst attack in the entire division. Recent results against Köln (0‑1) and Mainz (0‑0) only underlined the lack of ideas in the final third. The Knappen generate an average of only 1.06 xG per match and actually score just 0.57 goals per game. The exception was the DFB‑Pokal first round, where they beat Hallescher 5‑2 after extra time – but even against a lower‑division side, the goals only arrived once the game went into additional minutes.

Defence is also a concern: opponents create chances worth an average of 1.81 xG against them. This two‑way struggle can be traced to a heavily depleted squad. Eight players are currently unavailable. The latest setback came at the weekend with left wing‑back Robin Gosens joining the list alongside Dejan Ljubicic, Maximilian Weber, and Mertcan Aytan – all defenders. In attack, the coaching staff cannot count on captain Kenan Karaman, the fast Moussa Silla, or creative midfielder Soufiane El‑Fauzi.

Predicted Lineups

Dynamo Dresden (4‑2‑3‑1): Grill – Sterner, Rapp, Müller, Straudi – Wagner, Raschl – Čović, Hauptmann, Bobzin – Vermeij Out: Keller, Schmidt, Bening (all injured) Head coach: Thomas Stamm

Schalke (3‑4‑3): Karius – T. Becker, Katić, Kurucay – Gantenbein, Tanaka, Vozar, A. Becker – Hwang, Adamu, Aouchiche Out: Gosens, El‑Fauzi, Weber, Ljubicic, Silla, Karaman, Schallenberg (all injured) Head coach: Mirko Musić

Prediction and Bet

We expect a hard‑fought contest but ultimately a victory for Schalke. First, Dresden’s defence is severely weakened by injuries. With no depth at the back, Stamm will either have to trust inexperienced youngsters or go without rotation after the heavy loss to Holstein Kiel. Second, as noted, the Schwarz‑Gelben allow far too many chances (1.84 xGA per match) and concede even more. Third, even on home soil they tend to lose against stronger sides – they battle but still come out empty‑handed rather than earning draws. Finally, for all their own problems, Schalke can rely on Loris Karius, who ranks among the top five goalkeepers in the Bundesliga for saves, and they have shown they can overpower lower‑tier opposition, as they did in the previous cup round. Pick: Schalke to win at 2.00.

For the total goals market: Schalke average no more than one goal per away league game. Dresden score 1.25 goals per home match and concede about one per game. Both sides are missing key men all over the pitch, so a cautious, defensive approach with minimal risk‑taking seems likely. Pick: Under 2.5 goals at 2.25.