Paderborn vs Stuttgart 28.10.2026: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

The last round of the Bundesliga brought mixed fortunes for these two sides. Paderborn secured a vital three points by shutting out Hamburg 1-0, while Stuttgart suffered a painful home defeat, losing 3-2 to Borussia Mönchengladbach. Earlier this season, the Swabians won the reverse fixture 2-0 away. However, current form suggests the hosts can put up a much stronger fight this time around.

Paderborn’s Attacking Growth

In the previous matchday, Paderborn claimed a crucial 1-0 victory over a Hamburg side that had been on a three-game winning streak. The result not only gave them three points but also pushed them two clear of the relegation zone. More encouraging is the tangible improvement in their attacking output. While they remain one of the weakest teams in the league by expected goals (xG), their creative numbers have climbed noticeably since the international break. In the first four rounds, the club never generated more than 0.80 xG in a single game; in the last three fixtures, that figure has not dipped below 1.18.

Head coach Ralf Kettemann kept the same starting eleven that faced Werder Bremen, signaling his trust in a settled lineup. However, with a midweek fixture adding to the physical load, he may rotate to give some players a breather. At least one change will be forced due to injury: Vidovic picked up a knock and was replaced at half‑time in the Hamburg match.

Stuttgart’s Defensive Fragility and Inconsistency

Stuttgart slumped to their fifth defeat in seven league games, falling 2–3 at home to a Gladbach side that had yet to earn a single point before that match. Defensive issues remain a glaring weakness. After seven rounds, only Augsburg (19.59) have a worse expected goals against (xGA) than Stuttgart’s 17.55.

Before the Gladbach clash, the club announced an injury to starting right‑back Vagnoman. He joins Zagadou on the defensive injury list, with Assignon emerging as the most likely replacement. Left‑back Mittelstädt has been carrying a heavy workload and may be given a rest. Notably, Hoeneß made six changes to the lineup that faced Atlético Madrid in the Champions League, and further rotation is highly probable for this fixture.

Predicted Lineups

Paderborn (3-5-2): Noll – ter Horst, Scheller, Hansen – Kurda, Ulrich, Castañeda, Baak, Obermair – Marino, Tigges

Unavailable: Awortwi-Grant, Hoffmeier, Gehret, Klaas, Batista-Meier, Vidovic (all injured)

Head coach: Ralf Kettemann

Stuttgart (4-2-3-1): Bredlow – Assignon, Jeltsch, Chabot, Hendrix – Prömel, Karazor – Leveling, El-Hannus, Sauer – Undav

Unavailable: Zagadou, Diehl, Nartey, Tomaš, Vagnoman (all injured)

Head coach: Sebastian Hoeneß

Referee: Florian Badstübner

The official favours a lenient approach towards players. Over his last 20 assignments in the Bundesliga and DFB‑Pokal, Badstübner has averaged just 2.1 yellow cards per game and recorded 21.1 fouls per match. In that same period, he has issued three red cards and awarded three penalties.

Prediction and Bet

Main pick: Paderborn not to lose (odds 2.47)

Since the earlier defeat to Stuttgart, Paderborn have collected four points from two matches – a gritty 2–2 draw away at Werder Bremen and a hard‑fought 1‑0 win over a resurgent Hamburg. Stuttgart, by contrast, have lost two consecutive Bundesliga games and are clearly feeling the strain of a congested schedule that includes Champions League duty. The loss of starting right‑back Vagnoman only deepens their problems. The hosts are likely to offer stubborn resistance, and backing Paderborn to avoid defeat looks a solid choice at 2.47.

Total goals bet: Stuttgart under 1.5 team goals (odds 2.50)

Hoeneß’s side are suffering from fatigue and constant lineup rotation, which has blunted their attacking edge. Stuttgart have scored only three goals in their last three official matches, and their away form in the league is also subdued – just four goals in four trips. Meanwhile, Paderborn have been resolute at the back on home soil, conceding only four times in their own stadium this season. Taking Stuttgart’s individual total under 1.5 goals offers appealing value at 2.50.