Cadiz vs Ceuta 25.10.2026: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Borja Jiménez begins his tenure as Cádiz head coach with a team that has taken just one win from ten league outings and now finds itself in the relegation zone. His debut assignment is Ceuta, another struggling outfit that has yet to pick up a single victory on the road this season.

Tactical Analysis

Over six home matches, Cádiz have conceded only five goals while posting an expected goals against (xGA) of 5.88. That defensive resilience looks far stronger than their lowly 20th‑place standing would suggest. The attack tells a different story: after hammering Leganés 4‑0, the Andalusians suffered two consecutive shut‑out defeats, mustering a combined 1.48 xG against Sporting and Granada. That poor run led to Albert Celades’ dismissal, and Jiménez – the same manager who guided Leganés to La Liga promotion – has taken charge. With so little time to imprint his ideas, a radical tactical overhaul is unlikely, but the change in the dugout could inject fresh belief into the squad.

Long‑term absentees Gocholeishvili and Tabatadze remain sidelined, while Petit recently joined the injury list, though he had barely featured in the league. In the last round, both Castro and De Jesús were forced off with knocks. If they fail to recover, Kovačević and Díaz are poised to step in. Neither switch would require a formation change, but losing Castro would disrupt the understanding among the centre‑backs.

Ceuta have collected just five points from ten matches, sitting second from bottom. On their travels under José Juan Romero, they have one draw, three defeats, and 12 goals conceded with an xGA of 8.62. Opponents average 2.16 xG per game against them. Ceuta tend to attack in numbers, but that aggressive approach frequently leaves gaps that rivals are quick to exploit.

Even against stronger sides, Ceuta can fashion chances – their last away game at Castellón finished 1‑1, with the visitors generating 2.14 xG. Still, they have netted only three times in all their road fixtures this season. Injuries to Abad and Anuar limit options at right‑back and in midfield. Pecharroman and Illescas have already filled in, while the returns of Kone, Redru, and Lapeña have widened the rotation pool. Mama remains unavailable.

Predicted Lineups

Cádiz (4‑2‑3‑1): Gil; Díaz, Kovačević, Fernández, Arribas; Due, Zárate; Sánchez, Mueffek, Cordero; Copotun Unavailable: Tabatadze, Gocholeishvili, Petit (all injured), Castro, De Jesús (both doubtful) Head coach: Borja Jiménez

Ceuta (4‑2‑3‑1): López; Pecharroman, Hernández, Caparrós, Matos; Okoro, Illescas; Sevikyan, Salazar, Kone; Escobar Unavailable: Mama, Anuar, Abad (all injured) Head coach: José Juan Romero

Prediction and Bet

Cádiz’s home defence has been stingy (only five goals allowed in six matches), while Ceuta’s away record is dreadful (three defeats, 12 conceded). A new‑manager boost could also give the hosts extra energy. Main bet: Cádiz to win at 1.91. We put the probability at 60% – anything above 1.67 is considered playable.

For the goals market: Cádiz have failed to score in their last two games, but Ceuta’s away defence leaks heavily (2.16 xGA per match). The Andalusians have proven they can create chances at home, and Ceuta concede an average of three goals per road trip. Goals bet: Cádiz over 1.5 team goals at 1.86. Again, we assess a 60% chance (threshold above 1.67).